STARSET_MirrorA Copper Shortage Is Likely Coming for the Energy Transition
As the world shifts to renewable energy, our appetite for copper—a key component for renewable technologies—is rising rapidly. But we may not have the tools to meet the growing need.
随着世界向可再生能源转型，我们对铜的需求正在迅速增加，铜是可再生能源技术的关键组成部分。但我们可能没有工具来满足日益增长的需求。
By 2035, the global demand for copper is projected to nearly double, according to a new S&P Global report released Wednesday. In the worst-case scenario, based on our current production trends, the report projects a shortfall of 9.9 million metric tons of copper in 2035.
根据周三发布的标准普尔全球报告，到2035年，全球铜需求预计将增加近一倍。在最坏的情况下，根据我们目前的生产趋势，该报告预测2035年铜短缺990万公吨。
“The gap arises even under assumptions of aggressive capacity utilization rates and all-time-high recycling rates,” says the report. “Even with these aggressive assumptions, refined copper demand will outpace supply in the forecast period up to 2035.” To provide an additional sense of scale, the report explains that the amount of copper that will be in demand over the next 30 years will be more than all the copper we used in the world since 1900. That’s a lot of metal.
该报告称：“即使在产能利用率过高和回收率一直很高的假设下，这种差距也会出现。”。“即使有这些大胆的假设，到2035年的预测期内，精炼铜的需求仍将超过供应。”为了提供额外的规模感，该报告解释说，未来30年的需求量将超过1900年以来我们在世界上使用的所有铜。这是大量的金属需求。
“The energy transition is going to be dependent much more on copper than our current energy system,” Daniel Yergin, the vice chairman of S&P Global, told CNBC. “There’s just been the assumption that copper and other minerals will be there…. Copper is the metal of electrification, and electrification is much of what the energy transition is all about.”
标准普尔全球副主席丹尼尔·叶尔金告诉CNBC：“能源转型将更多地依赖铜，而不是我们目前的能源体系。”，“人们只是假设那里会有铜和其他矿物……铜是电气化的金属，电气化在很大程度上是能源转型的关键。”
Copper is a great conductor of electricity, second only to silver in its ability to funnel electrons and protons from point A to B. As a consequence, the metal is a key component of batteries, electronics, appliances, power grids—you name it. If it runs on a current, it probably actually runs on copper. But it’s a limited resource, and mining and processing the metal is a dirty business in its own right.
铜是一种性能优良的电导体，在将电子和质子从A点输送到B点的能力方面仅次于银。因此，铜是组成电池、电子产品、电器和电网的关键部件。如果一件东西通过电流运行，它可能实际上在铜上运行。但这是一种有限的资源，开采和加工金属本身就是一项肮脏的生意。
To kick our fossil fuel addiction, we’ll need copper, and there will need to be some environmental compromises to get it. We’ll also need to reclaim and recycle as much of the metal as we can. But even then, the new report emphasizes that our current plans might not be enough.
为了戒除我们对化石燃料的依赖，我们需要铜，而且需要一些环境妥协来获得铜。我们还需要尽可能多地回收和再循环金属。但即便如此，最新报告强调，我们目前的计划可能还不够。
“Substitution and recycling will not be enough to meet the demands of electric vehicles (EVs), power infrastructure, and renewable generation,” the report says. “Unless massive new supply comes online in a timely way, the goal of Net-Zero Emissions by 2050 will be short-circuited and remain out of reach.”
报告称：“替代和回收将不足以满足电动汽车、电力基础设施和可再生能源发电的需求。”。“除非大量的新能源及时投入使用，否则2050年实现净零排放的目标将无法实现。”
S&P Global’s analysis highlights electric vehicle production as a particularly fast-growing draw on copper supplies. The company projects that the amount of metric tons of copper used in EVs and charging infrastructure will more than triple by 2050. Electricity transmission and distribution is listed as another major copper usage sector in the drive toward electrification. (Notably, the bulk of copper demand is still expected to be from non-energy transition markets, like building construction, appliances, brass hardware, cell phones, and data processing and storage.)
标准普尔全球的分析强调，电动汽车生产对铜供应的需求增长特别快。该公司预计，到2050年，电动汽车和充电基础设施中使用的公吨铜将增加三倍以上。输电和配电被列为推动电气化的另一个主要铜使用部门。（值得注意的是，预计大部分铜需求仍将来自非能源转型市场，如建筑施工、家电、黄铜硬件、手机以及数据处理和存储。）
Bolstering the issue of supply shortage is the fact that most of Earth’s copper is found in a small number of places. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, 65% percent of copper’s known reserves are in Chile, Argentina, Peru, Mexico, and the U.S. And new copper mines can take years to develop, says S&P—which means shortages are likely even if we start developing way more mines yesterday.
支持供应短缺问题的是，地球上的大部分铜存在于少数地方。根据美国地质调查局的报告显示，智利、阿根廷、秘鲁、墨西哥和美国的铜储量占已知储量的65%，标普表示，开发新的铜矿可能需要数年时间，这意味着即使我们从过去就开始开发更多的铜矿，也可能出现短缺。
“The objective of this study is to size the gap between policy ambitions and the level of production that can be delivered in the years ahead. It is not intended to recommend or predict which possible solutions or combination of solutions should or can fill the supply gap,” reads the report.
该报告称：“本研究的目的是确定政策目标与未来几年可交付的生产水平之间的差距。其目的不是建议或预测哪些可能的解决方案或解决方案组合应该或可以填补供应缺口。”。
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